A mathematical model of optimized radioiodine-131 therapy of Graves' hyperthyroidism

Background The current status of radioiodine-131 (RaI) dosimetry for Graves' hyperthyroidism is not clear. Recurrent hyperthyroidism and iatrogenic hypothyroidism are two problems which interact such that trying to solve one leads to exacerbation of the other. Optimized RaI therapy has therefore begun to be defined just in terms of early hypothyroidism (ablative therapy) as physicians have given up on reducing hypothyroidism. Methods Optimized therapy is evaluated both in terms of the greatest separation of cure rate from hypothyroidism rate (non-ablative therapy) or in terms of early hypothyroidism (ablative therapy) by mathematical modeling of outcome after radioiodine and critically discussing the three common methods of RaI dosing for Graves' disease. Results Cure follows a logarithmic relationship to activity administered or absorbed dose, while hypothyroidism follows a linear relationship. The effect of including or omitting factors in the calculation of the administered I–131 activity such as the measured thyroid uptake and effective half-life of RaI or giving extra compensation for gland size is discussed. Conclusions Very little benefit can be gained by employing complicated methods of RaI dose selection for non-ablative therapy since the standard activity model shows the best potential for cure and prolonged euthyroidism. For ablative therapy, a standard MBq/g dosing provides the best outcome in terms of cure and early hypothyroidism.

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