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Chance of potentially damaging ground shaking (MMI=VI) in 100 years, based on the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Metadata Last Checked: January 27, 2026 | Last Modified: 2023-12-21T00:00:00Z
The 2023 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model defines the potential for earthquake ground shaking for various probability levels across the United States and is applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. The updated model represents an assessment of the best available science in earthquake hazards and incorporates new findings on earthquake ground shaking, seismicity, and long-period amplification over deep sedimentary basins. The new model represents an update of the seismic hazard model; previous versions were developed in 1996, 2002, 2008, 2014, and 2018. This data set represents the chance of potentially damaging ground shaking (MMI=VI) in 100 years for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.1 degrees in latitude and longitude for Alaska, 0.02 degrees for Hawaii, and 0,05 degrees for the conterminous United States. The values are obtained by averaging the probability of experiencing MMI VI based on a peak ground acceleration, and the probability of experiencing MMI VI based on 1.0-second spectral acceleration. Ground motions are amplified using topographic, slope-based Vs30 values.

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