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Detecting trajectories of regime shifts and loss of resilience in coastal wetlands using remote sensing

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Metadata Last Checked: January 27, 2026 | Last Modified: 2024-09-16T00:00:00Z
Raster data shows landscape scale trajectories of change as four potential scenarios based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trends and standard deviation trends using full time series (Scenarios_All_FULL_TS.tif) as well as time series up to LandTrendr breakpoint if detected (Scenarios_All_LT_TS.tif). Time series analysis for trend use Landsat surface reflectance imagery from 1985 to 2021. Scenarios: 1) Abrupt Transition – ecosystem is unstable and transitioning to alternate state (regime shift, exhibiting EWS); 2) Slowly Transitioning – ecosystem is transitioning slowly to alternate state (no EWS detected); 3) Recovering ecosystem – ecosystem is unstable but also becoming re-vegetated over the years; 4) Stable – becoming “greener” and more stable over time.

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