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Dynamically Downscaled Projections of Phenological Changes across the Contiguous United States

Published by U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) | U.S. Environmental Protection Agency | Metadata Last Checked: August 02, 2025 | Last Modified: 2023-12-04
This study examines how phenological indicators, which track the life cycles of plants and animals, could change from 2025–2100 as simulated in a regional climate model over the contiguous U.S. Chilling units quantify the presence of cooler weather that can benefit plants prior to their growing season. They are projected to decrease in the southern U.S., possibly inhibiting agricultural production. Spring onset is projected to occur earlier in the year, advancing by 1–4 days on average over each future decade. Risk of false springs (damaging hard freezes after spring onset) increases in the western U.S. Our findings highlight the need to understand effects of climate change during transitional seasons, which can impact agriculture and ecosystems.

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  • https://github.com/usa-npn/gridded_models

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  • Fig5.spring_index.cesm_rcp4.5.part1.tar

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Complete Metadata
accessLevel public
bureauCode 
                                            [
  "020:00"
]
contactPoint 
                                            {
  "fn": "Megan Mallard",
  "hasEmail": "mailto:mallard.megan@epa.gov"
}
description This study examines how phenological indicators, which track the life cycles of plants and animals, could change from 2025–2100 as simulated in a regional climate model over the contiguous U.S. Chilling units quantify the presence of cooler weather that can benefit plants prior to their growing season. They are projected to decrease in the southern U.S., possibly inhibiting agricultural production. Spring onset is projected to occur earlier in the year, advancing by 1–4 days on average over each future decade. Risk of false springs (damaging hard freezes after spring onset) increases in the western U.S. Our findings highlight the need to understand effects of climate change during transitional seasons, which can impact agriculture and ecosystems.
distribution 
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identifier https://doi.org/10.23719/1528766
keyword 
                                            [
  "Chilling Requirement",
  "Spring onset",
  "dynamical downscaling",
  "regional climate model"
]
license https://pasteur.epa.gov/license/sciencehub-license.html
modified 2023-12-04
programCode 
                                            [
  "020:000"
]
publisher 
                                            {
  "name": "U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD)",
  "subOrganizationOf": {
    "name": "U.S. Environmental Protection Agency",
    "subOrganizationOf": {
      "name": "U.S. Government"
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}
references 
                                            null
rights 
                                            null
title Dynamically Downscaled Projections of Phenological Changes across the Contiguous United States

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