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Percentage of Hypothetical Well Pumpage Causing Depletions to Simulated Base Flow, Evapotranspiration, and Groundwater Storage in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, 2011 through 2060

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Metadata Last Checked: January 27, 2026 | Last Modified: 2024-02-08T00:00:00Z
This data release includes a polygon shapefile of grid cells attributed with values representing the simulated base-flow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater-storage depletions as a percentage of hypothetical well pumpage for the 2011-2060 time period. Depletions were simulated by the Phase-Three Elkhorn-Loup Model (ELM), constructed using MODFLOW-NWT (Niswonger and others, 2011). Each polygon represents one model grid cell, with pumping specified from either layer one or layer two of the model. All values are estimates and approximations. The phase three ELM simulated the High Plains aquifer in north-central Nebraska from predevelopment (pre-1895) through 2060 (Flynn and Stanton, 2018). The simulation was calibrated using an automated parameter-estimation method to optimize the fit of simulation outputs to three sets of calibration targets: estimated 1940 groundwater levels and base flows (representing pre-1940 conditions), 1940-through-2010 monthly groundwater levels, and 1940 through 2010 monthly estimated base flows. The calibrated simulation was used to estimate volumetric ratios of the reductions in base flow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater storage to the total volume of water pumped from a hypothetical well for a 50-year future time period. Ratios were then multiplied by 100 to obtain percentages. The 50-year period was selected because base-flow depletion percentages for 40- to 50-year periods are the basis of groundwater and surface-water management decisions in Nebraska.

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