Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise

This dataset contains projections of shoreline change and uncertainty bands across California for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model run in an ensemble forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with satellite-derived shoreline (SDS) observations across the state. Scenarios include 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 250, 300 and 500 centimeters (cm) of SLR by the year 2100. Output for SLR of 0 cm is also included, reflective of conditions in 2000. This model shows change in shoreline positions along pre-determined cross-shore transects, considering sea level, wave conditions, along-shore/cross-shore sediment transport, long-term trends due to sediment supply, and estimated variability due to unresolved processes (as described in Vitousek and others, 2021). Variability associated with complex coastal processes (for example, beach cusps/undulations and shore-attached sandbars) are included via a noise parameter in a model, which is tuned using observations of shoreline change at each transect and run in an ensemble of 200 simulations; this approach allows for a representation of statistical variability in a model that is assimilated with sequences of noisy observations. The model synthesizes and improves upon numerous, well-established shoreline models in the scientific literature; processes and methods are described in this metadata (see lineage and process steps), but also described in more detail in Vitousek and others 2017, 2021, and 2023. Output includes different cases covering important model behaviors (cases are described in process steps of this metadata). KMZ data are readily viewable in Google Earth. For best display of results, it is recommended to turn off any 3D features or terrain. For technical users and researchers, shapefile and KMZ data can be ingested into geographic information system (GIS) software such as Global Mapper or QGIS.

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  "CMHRP",
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  "Climate Change",
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