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Raster Climate Priming Index and Climate Components for Alaska and Northwest Canada 1901-2100

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Metadata Last Checked: January 27, 2026 | Last Modified: 2025-01-24T00:00:00Z
The Climate Priming Index was created to identify periods where thermokarst activity may be initiated based on climatic influences. The annual Index assumes that years following periods of extreme, above average, temperatures and precipitation create pulse events leading to thermokarst formation. The Index is composed of 6 components calculated from cumulative distribution functions based on 5 unique variables: freezing degree-days, thawing degree-days, summer precipitation, early winter precipitation, and total winter precipitation. The index is a value from 0-6, and based on an analysis of historic thermokarst events we determined that an Index value 4 shows that thermokarst is likely to form. We calculated the Index for the historic period from 1901-2020, and the projected period of 2006-2100. Our cumulative distribution functions for each component were calculated using kernel density estimation, for the historic period the kernel density estimation was fit using the full range of yearly data from 1901-2020, and for the projected scenarios the kernel density estimation was fit with data from 1901-2005.

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