Sea Level Rise: American Samoa: High-Tide Flooding: 2090 Intermediate-Low Scenario
This high-tide flooding layer provides a prediction of future sea level rise (SLR) inundation and was produced using a passive flooding model, often referred to as a "bathtub" model. It provides an assessment of flooded areas according to a specific water level. These water levels are determined using projections from the U.S. Interagency Task Force (ITF) (Sweet et al., 2022) in combination with land subsidence projections modeled by Han et al. (2019). The latter is included only for Tutuila, Aunuu, and Manua Islands (Ofu, Olosega, and Tau). In contrast, SLR projections for Swains Island and Rose Atoll only include the climate-related processes (ITF). The projections are modeled following both scenarios and time. The five scenarios range from low to high depending on the amount of greenhouse gases emissions, while time is divided by decade from 2030 to 2100.
We apply this model to the 2022 National Geodetic Survey (NGS) lidar DEM for American Samoa with 1-meter resolution. The DEM was leveled from NAD83 (PA11) to mean sea level at 0 m (MSL=0) in 2005. The adjustment of the DEM may lead to inaccuracies due to the lack of historic information. It is also important to acknowledge that any inaccuracies in the DEM will lead to inaccuracies in the flooding estimates.
In the 2090 intermediate-low scenario represented here, the modeled water level is 77 cm (41 cm for Rose and Swains). In this scenario, world-wide society limits increase of emissions, and sea level rises without reaching any tipping points, i.e. large and sudden changes such as a rapid increase in ice sheets melting. It is recommended to use this scenario only for planning construction of non-critical infrastructure that owners can afford to lose, such as a beach "fale".
Flood depth is provided in centimeters above the 2005 mean higher high water (MHHW) tide level.
It is essential to emphasize that the passive flooding model used to produce this data layer does not include the effects of waves on flooding. As a result, the extent and impacts of future flooding under high-wave conditions are not represented, which should be accounted for in planning efforts. In addition, the DEM is assumed to be unchanged as sea level rises, but in fact there will be erosion and changes in the shape of the land surface, and continued subsidence. This also must be considered, and it is best practice to consider any flooding extent or depth represented in this data layer as a best-case scenario, with the effects of dynamic shoreline processes leading to greater flood extent and depth than presented.
Complete Metadata
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|---|---|
| accessLevel | public |
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| description | This high-tide flooding layer provides a prediction of future sea level rise (SLR) inundation and was produced using a passive flooding model, often referred to as a "bathtub" model. It provides an assessment of flooded areas according to a specific water level. These water levels are determined using projections from the U.S. Interagency Task Force (ITF) (Sweet et al., 2022) in combination with land subsidence projections modeled by Han et al. (2019). The latter is included only for Tutuila, Aunuu, and Manua Islands (Ofu, Olosega, and Tau). In contrast, SLR projections for Swains Island and Rose Atoll only include the climate-related processes (ITF). The projections are modeled following both scenarios and time. The five scenarios range from low to high depending on the amount of greenhouse gases emissions, while time is divided by decade from 2030 to 2100. We apply this model to the 2022 National Geodetic Survey (NGS) lidar DEM for American Samoa with 1-meter resolution. The DEM was leveled from NAD83 (PA11) to mean sea level at 0 m (MSL=0) in 2005. The adjustment of the DEM may lead to inaccuracies due to the lack of historic information. It is also important to acknowledge that any inaccuracies in the DEM will lead to inaccuracies in the flooding estimates. In the 2090 intermediate-low scenario represented here, the modeled water level is 77 cm (41 cm for Rose and Swains). In this scenario, world-wide society limits increase of emissions, and sea level rises without reaching any tipping points, i.e. large and sudden changes such as a rapid increase in ice sheets melting. It is recommended to use this scenario only for planning construction of non-critical infrastructure that owners can afford to lose, such as a beach "fale". Flood depth is provided in centimeters above the 2005 mean higher high water (MHHW) tide level. It is essential to emphasize that the passive flooding model used to produce this data layer does not include the effects of waves on flooding. As a result, the extent and impacts of future flooding under high-wave conditions are not represented, which should be accounted for in planning efforts. In addition, the DEM is assumed to be unchanged as sea level rises, but in fact there will be erosion and changes in the shape of the land surface, and continued subsidence. This also must be considered, and it is best practice to consider any flooding extent or depth represented in this data layer as a best-case scenario, with the effects of dynamic shoreline processes leading to greater flood extent and depth than presented. |
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| identifier | as_uhslc_all_slr_flood_2090_intlow_v2 |
| isPartOf | Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) |
| issued | 2024-07-31T00:00:00.000+00:00 |
| keyword |
[
"Earth Science > Climate Indicators > Atmospheric/Ocean Indicators > Sea Level Rise > Inundation",
"Earth Science > Human Dimensions > Environmental Impacts",
"Earth Science > Human Dimensions > Natural Hazards > Floods",
"Earth Science > Oceans > Coastal Processes > Sea Level Rise",
"Ocean > Pacific Ocean > South Pacific Ocean > Polynesia > American Samoa > Aunuu",
"Ocean > Pacific Ocean > South Pacific Ocean > Polynesia > American Samoa > Manua",
"Ocean > Pacific Ocean > South Pacific Ocean > Polynesia > American Samoa > Ofu",
"Ocean > Pacific Ocean > South Pacific Ocean > Polynesia > American Samoa > Olosega",
"Ocean > Pacific Ocean > South Pacific Ocean > Polynesia > American Samoa > Rose Atoll",
"Ocean > Pacific Ocean > South Pacific Ocean > Polynesia > American Samoa > Swains",
"Ocean > Pacific Ocean > South Pacific Ocean > Polynesia > American Samoa > Tau",
"Ocean > Pacific Ocean > South Pacific Ocean > Polynesia > American Samoa > Tutuila",
"PacIOOS > Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System",
"PacIOOS > Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System"
]
|
| landingPage | https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu |
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[]
|
| license | https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ |
| modified | 2024-07-31T00:00:00.000+00:00 |
| publisher |
{
"name": "Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS)",
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| spatial | -168.140850541878,-14.559769090829,-171.089797256602,-11.0480017523415 |
| title | Sea Level Rise: American Samoa: High-Tide Flooding: 2090 Intermediate-Low Scenario |
