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Spreadsheet of overall drought-event characteristics for 1950-2005 and 2056-95 derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method assuming historical-standard stomatal resistance

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Metadata Last Checked: January 27, 2026 | Last Modified: 2024-07-16T00:00:00Z
The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have evaluated projections of future droughts for south Florida based on climate model output from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) downscaled climate dataset from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The MACA dataset includes both Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A Microsoft Excel workbook is provided which tabulates overall drought-event characteristics based on 6-mo. and 12-mo. averaged balance anomaly timeseries derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method assuming the historical-standard stomatal resistance (rs). Overall cumulative drought-event characteristics during the historical period 1950–2005 and the future period 2056-95 and their percentage change from historical to future are provided for four regions: (1) the entire South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), (2) the Lower West Coast (LWC) water supply region, (3) the Lower East Coast (LEC) water supply region, and (4) the Okeechobee plus (OKEE+) water supply meta-region consisting of Lake Okeechobee (OKEE), the Lower Kissimmee (LKISS), Upper Kissimmee (UKISS), and Upper East Coast (UEC) water supply regions in the SFWMD. The balance anomaly timeseries are computed as the departure from the long-term monthly means of monthly balances (precipitation - reference evapotranspiration) for the period 1950-2005. Then 6-mo. and 12-mo. moving averages of the balance anomalies are computed and drought-event characteristics (duration, intensity and severity) are derived from the moving-average timeseries.

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