Trends and a Targeted Annual Warning System for Greater Sage-Grouse in the Western United States (ver. 4.0, November 2025)

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) are at the center of state and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with the best-available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations and the ecosystems they inhabit. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960-2024. Included in this report are methodological updates to lek count data aggregation, state-space model forecasting, and targeted annual warning system signals, which are detailed under individual Modification sections. State-space models estimated 2.9-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. Average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.2 and 3.4 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.2, 64.1, and 78.8 percent range-wide during Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively. Definitions: Watch: Assigned to populations that exhibit evidence of population decline below those of their respective climate cluster (slow signal) over 2 consecutive years. Warning: Assigned to populations that experienced slow signals in 3 out of 4 consecutive years OR a relatively strong magnitude (fast signal) of evidence for 2 out of 3 years. Watches may identify the need for intensive monitoring whereas warnings may identify the need for management intervention aimed at stabilizing populations. References: Coates, P.S., Prochazka, B.G., O’Donnell, M.S., Aldridge, C.L., Edmunds, D.R., Monroe, A.P., Ricca, M.A., Wann, G.T., Hanser, S.E., Wiechman, L.A., and Chenaille, M.P., 2021, Range-wide greater sage-grouse hierarchical monitoring framework-Implications for defining population boundaries, trend estimation, and a targeted annual warning system: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020-1154, 243 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201154. Coates, P.S., Prochazka, B.G., Aldridge, C.L., O’Donnell, M.S., Edmunds, D.R., Monroe, A.P., Hanser, S.E., Wiechman, L.A., and Chenaille, M.P., 2022, Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)-Updated 1960-2021: U.S. Geological Survey Data Report 1165, 16 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/dr1165

                                            [
  "010:12"
]
                                        

                                            {
  "fn": "U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center",
  "@type": "vcard:Contact",
  "hasEmail": "mailto:gs-b-werc_data_management@usgs.gov"
}
                                        

                                            [
  {
    "@type": "dcat:Distribution",
    "title": "Digital Data",
    "format": "XML",
    "accessURL": "https://doi.org/10.5066/P9OQWGIV",
    "mediaType": "application/http",
    "description": "Landing page for access to the data"
  },
  {
    "@type": "dcat:Distribution",
    "title": "Original Metadata",
    "format": "XML",
    "mediaType": "text/xml",
    "description": "The metadata original format",
    "downloadURL": "https://data.usgs.gov/datacatalog/metadata/USGS.637e9b26d34ed907bf76eb1e.xml"
  }
]
                                        

                                            [
  "California",
  "Colorado",
  "Idaho",
  "Montana",
  "Nevada",
  "North Dakota",
  "Oregon",
  "South Dakota",
  "USGS:637e9b26d34ed907bf76eb1e",
  "Utah",
  "Washington",
  "Wyoming",
  "adaptive management",
  "biota",
  "ecology",
  "human impacts",
  "long-term ecological monitoring",
  "shrubland ecosystems",
  "targeted monitoring",
  "triggers",
  "warning system",
  "western United States"
]
                                        

                                            {
  "name": "U.S. Geological Survey",
  "@type": "org:Organization"
}
                                        

                                            [
  "Geospatial"
]